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Cost Estimating

Budget vs Bid: What Our Cost Estimating Record Shows

Across 14 projects that reached bid, ACOT’s budget estimates landed within an average of 3.66% of the bid price. A look at the numbers behind that figure.

Budget vs Bid: What Our Cost Estimating Record Shows

An estimate is only useful if it holds up when contractors price the work. One way to judge an estimator is to put the budget figure next to the bid that came back. ACOT keeps that record, and it is part of our capability statement.

The headline numbers

Fourteen of the projects in ACOT’s cost estimating accuracy results went to bid. Across those fourteen:

  • The average difference between budget and bid price was 3.66%.
  • 11 of 14 came in within 5% of the budget.
  • The closest was Benton/Stadler Hall Renovation Phase 1: a $1,800,000 budget against a $1,790,000 bid, a 0.56% differential.
  • The widest was Misc. Building Improvements, St. Louis: $1,200,000 against $1,089,000, or 9.25%.
  • In every one of the fourteen, the bid came in below the budget, so the Owner was not caught short.

Large and small projects alike

The record spans a wide range of project sizes and types:

ProjectBudget costBid price% differential
Maximum Security Prison, RI$56,000,000$54,800,0002.14
East Terminal Expansion “Pkg. B”, Lambert Airport$46,632,000$45,500,0002.43
Student Center, University of Missouri$22,156,000$21,300,0003.86
Benton/Stadler Hall Renovation Phase 2$18,200,000$17,900,0001.65
Elevator Upgrade, St. Louis Housing$3,200,000$3,125,0002.34

A $56 million prison and a $3.2 million elevator upgrade both landed within two and a half percent.

Why accuracy matters to an Owner

A budget that is too low leads to redesign, value engineering under pressure, or a funding gap at the worst possible moment. A budget that is too high ties up capital that could be working elsewhere. Estimates that track the market closely let an Owner make funding and scope decisions with confidence before the project goes out to bid.

Cost estimating sits alongside CPM scheduling and document control in ACOT’s program and construction management practice. The full table, including projects estimated at preconstruction, schematic and programming stages, is on our Experience page.

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